“Human inventiveness… has still not found a mechanical process to replace horses as the propulsion for vehicles,” lamentedLe Petit Journal, a French newspaper, in December 1893.Its answer was to organise the Paris-Rouen race for horseless carriages, held the following July.The 102 entrants included vehicles powered by steam,petrol, electricity, compressed air and 21 qualified for the 126km (78-mile) race, which attracted huge clear winner was the internal combustion the next century it would go on to power industry and change the world.

1893年12月，法国《小日报》曾感叹道：“以人类的创造力……仍未找到可以取代马匹驱动车辆的机械方式。”第二年7月举办的巴黎至鲁昂无马马车赛算是对这一问题的回应。报名参赛的102辆车各有特色，有的靠蒸汽驱动，有的靠汽油驱动，有的靠电力驱动，有的靠压缩空气驱动，还有的靠液压装置驱动。只有21 辆车取得了参加126公里（78 英里）正式比赛的资格，比赛吸引了大批观众。内燃机成为当之无愧的赢家。在接下来的一个世纪，它将为工业提供动力，并改变世界。

The big end

内燃机的大限

2 But its days are gains in battery technology favour electric motors Paris in 1894 not a single electric car made it to the starting line, partly because they needed battery-replacement stations every 30km or so.Today’s electric cars,powered by lithium-ion batteries, can do much Chevy Bolt has a range of 383km; Tesla fans recently drove a Model S more than 1,000km on a single optimistically predicts electric vehicles will make up 14%of global car sales by 2025, up from 1% have more modest forecasts, but are hurriedly revising them upwards as batteries get cheaper and better—the cost per kilowatt-hour has fallen from $1,000 in 2010 to $130-200 are tightening, too.Last month Britain joined a lengthening list of electric-only countries, saying that all new cars must be zero-emission by 2050.

2 但如今内燃机大限将至。电池技术的快速进步更利于电动机的发展。1894年巴黎的那场比赛中，没有一辆电力驱动的车成功踏上正赛的起跑线，部分原因在于那些车大约每30 公里就需要有个电池更换站更换电池。当今的电动汽车采用锂离子电池，性能优异得多。雪佛兰博尔特续航可达383 公里；特斯拉车迷最近驾驶Model S，一次充电就跑了1000 多公里。瑞银集团乐观预测，到2025年，在全球汽车销售市场上，电动汽车占比将从目前的1%升至14%。其他机构更为谨慎，但也在加紧调高预测比例，因为电池价格越发便宜且性能越发优异——每千瓦时的成本已从2010年的1000 美元降至目前的130—200美元。相关监管也在收紧。不断有国家宣布禁售燃油车，英国上月也加入了这一行列。英国政府表态，到2050年所有新车必须实现零排放。

3 The shift from fuel and pistons to batteries and electric motors is unlikely to take that long.The first death rattles of the internal combustion engine are already reverberating around the world—and many of the consequences will be welcome.

3 从燃料和活塞向电池和电动机的转变未必需要那么长时间。内燃机第一波临终哀鸣已经回荡在世界各个角落，而随之产生的诸多变化都将为世人所乐见。

4 To gauge what lies ahead, think how the internal combustion engine has shaped modern life.The rich world was rebuilt for motor vehicles, with huge investments in road networks and the invention of suburbia, along with shopping malls and drive-through 85% of American workers commute by was also a generator of economic development and the expansion of the middle class, in post-war America and are now about 1bn cars on the road, almost all powered by fossil most of them sit idle,America’s car and lorry engines can produce ten times as much energy as its power internal combustion engine is the mightiest motor in history.

4 要看清未来的形势，需要思考内燃机如何塑造了现代生活。发达国家因机动车而重建，投入巨资建设道路交通网，开发郊区，建立大型购物中心和汽车餐厅。大约85%的美国职工开车上下班。在战后的美国和世界其他地方，汽车制造业也促进了经济发展，扩大了中产阶级的规模。如今全世界汽车保有量约为10 亿辆，路上行驶的汽车几乎都由化石燃料驱动。尽管美国的轿车和货车引擎大多处在闲置状态，但它们所能产生的能量是发电厂的10 倍。内燃机是历史上最强大的引擎。

5 But electrification has thrown the car industry into best brands are founded on their engineering heritage—especially in with existing vehicles, electric cars are much simpler and have fewer parts; they are more like computers on means they need fewer people to assemble them and fewer subsidiary systems from specialist at factories that do not make electric cars are worried that they could be for the less to go wrong, the market for maintenance and spare parts will today’s carmakers grapple with their costly legacy of old factories and swollen workforces, new entrants will be brands may be able to stand out through styling and handling, but low-margin, mass-market carmakers will have to compete chiefly on cost.

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